Leiter Reports: A Philosophy Blog

The best bet for the Democrats is obviously John Edwards, who polls better against all the likely Republican candidates than any of the other Democratic contenders–no doubt because he pulls in enough of the “independent” voters. (He’s also a real Southerner, and it has to be observed that the only Democrats to be elected President in the last forty years have been Southerners.) Hillary Clinton suffers from being a Clinton, as well as having one of the most unappealing public personae of a national politician in recent memory. Dick Cheney is creepier and scarier, to be sure, but “fake” is the only word that captures the impression Ms. Clinton makes every time she opens her mouth. 

Barack Obama’s public positions tend to be a bit embarrassing, but I am told by some of my future colleagues who know him that he is more liberal than he lets on, and that he is aiming, on purpose, for the “mushy middle” of the American polity.  Obama’s greatest liability should be obvious:  he’s not white, and since de jure apartheid only ended in American forty years ago or so, there must still be 20% of the electorate that is consciously or subconciously racist, or grew up in a racist household, and will be mobilized against the mere prospect of a non-white President.  (Some of those people would likely be voting Republican anyway, but certainly not all.)  And once the Republicans are done with Barack Osama gaffes and smears, they’ll lock up the racist (and racially uneasy) vote by calling attention to the Church to which Senator Obama belongs in Chicago.   (We’ll know soon enough whether these concerns about racism are well-founded, starting with the Iowa caucuses this week.  Polls, I suspect, are overstating Obama’s support, because of the well-known phenomenon that those responding do not want to to seem racist when answering questions.)   I am optimistic that Obama would be a more progressive President than Hillary Clinton (notwithstanding some of his mealy-mouthed rhetoric), but Edwards has taken the most genuinely progressive positions to date and is also surely more electable than either of them.

I’m with Brian Leiter in liking Edwards, but just don’t know enough about Barack Obama to make a judgement. The impact of racism on poll ratings is interesting, but I don’t think there was any great discrepancy in the Iowa result, just the New Hampshire one.

Re. Hillary, no kidding. There is something unappealing about Hillary – and it’s something to do with her mask not  fitting her too well – a bit like Gordon Brown. ‘I’ve found my voice’. Good line, in that it addresses her biggest challenge, but likely not true.

It will an interesting journey.

Technorati Tags: edwards, clinton, obama, election, democrats, primaries, presidential